标签： 上海夜场论坛

　　"Huawei terminals have reached the most difficult moment."

　　Two weeks ago, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei’s consumer business, revealed to the outside world the dilemma that Huawei is about to face — — Five days later, the US "sanctions" came into effect. Huawei’s "broken plane" was officially "cut off".

　　As of today (September 26), Huawei has been "cut off" for more than ten days. What is the current situation of Huawei, and how will they break through in the face of the expanding blockade? Is it Huawei’s darkest hour, or is it the darkness before dawn?

　　Huawei employees: It is assumed every day that the supply will be cut off tomorrow.

　　"September 15th is an ordinary Tuesday for us."

　　Jingzi (pseudonym as requested by the interviewer) has been working in Huawei for 2 years. When she first joined the company, it was when Huawei was put at the forefront by the United States. In 2018, the United States opened the so-called "sanctions" against Huawei. In May last year, the United States listed Huawei in the "entity list"; In May this year, the control was further upgraded. After a 120-day buffer period, the "ban" came into effect on September 15.

　　"As early as two years ago, the company has established an idea from top to bottom — — Sanctions ‘ Tomorrow ’ Will start. " Although more than 800 days have passed since tomorrow, it seems that all this has become "accustomed" to Huawei employees.

　　Jing Zi told the reporter of Dongfang.com that when the United States officially waved a big stick at Huawei, his department had asked employees to "give up their illusions" — — Even if there is an "exemption period", it seems that Huawei has adjusted its working status to the rhythm of "no supply".

　　"Although the business is likely to face difficulties, the company’s salary and benefits for employees are increasing instead of decreasing. The rumors about layoffs in domestic business are basically rumors. " Shizuko told reporters that after working in Huawei for two years, his salary level has been about twice that of other companies. "Of course, at the same time, the work intensity is also the top level in the industry." Shizuko quipped.

　　Supplier: After the supply was cut off, some people were speculating on Huawei mobile phones.

　　6388 yuan, this is the price of a second-hand Huawei Mate 30 pro 5G mobile phone on an e-commerce platform after Huawei was "cut off". However, when Dongfang. com and Zongxiang News visited Huawei offline recently, they found that the price of this Huawei flagship machine, which was released a year ago and equipped with Kirin 990 chip, was as low as 5,399 yuan, and most of it was well supplied.

　　Why is a second-hand mobile phone sold a year ago more expensive than a brand-new mobile phone? Liqun Huang, a Huawei distributor, seems to be "not surprised" by this. "Since the US sanctions, there have been many people speculating on Huawei mobile phones."

　　"Due to the second round of sanctions, the chip can’t be produced, which is very difficult. At present, it is out of stock. This may be the last generation of Kirin’s high-end chips. " In August this year, before the ban came into effect, Yu Chengdong tragically announced to the outside world that Kirin was "out of print".

　　On September 15th, after Huawei was officially "cut off", Kirin Chip also began to go out of print. A seller of a second-hand platform once said that the "collection significance" of Huawei Mate30 pro is far greater than the use significance when selling Huawei mobile phones to Dongfang.com and Zongxiang journalists. There are even sellers who say that buying Huawei mobile phones now is "patriotism".

　　In this regard, Liqun Huang said that the interruption of supply does not mean the suspension of production, and the out-of-print Kirin chip does not mean the out-of-print Huawei mobile phone. "It is not reliable to buy second-hand mobile phones for collection." According to several responsible persons of Huawei authorized experience stores, the old Huawei mobile phones, including Huawei Mate30 pro, are in sufficient supply, and there will be no "one machine is hard to find" in a short time.

　　At the same time, Liqun Huang told the reporter of Dongfang. com that after the "supply cut-off", Huawei’s mobile phones really became more scarce than before, but this did not affect the current sales of Huawei’s mobile phones. Liqun Huang also said, "We can’t be sure about Huawei’s future, but we can conclude that Huawei will ‘ Cool ’ It seems too early to say. "

　　Forced by the United States to "cut off the supply"? Huawei suppliers are pleading.

　　On August 17, the US Department of Commerce further tightened the restrictions on Huawei’s access to American technology, and listed 38 subsidiaries of Huawei in 21 countries around the world in the "entity list". This is seen as a comprehensive "encirclement and suppression" of Huawei — — It means that from the whole production to the purchase of parts, even the road of "saving the country by curve" has been blocked by the United States.

　　On the eve of the supply cut-off, Huawei chip suppliers who have been on the sidelines have also made statements. TSMC said that the company has no plans to continue supplying Huawei after September 14th. Subsequently, Micron Technology, Samsung and SK Hynix all indicated that they would not be able to ship to Huawei after September 14th.

　　Earlier, Guo Ping, Huawei’s rotating chairman, once shouted to global chip companies that "helping Huawei is helping yourself". Many companies seem to know their way well. Before and after the supply cut-off, some Huawei suppliers still hoped that the U.S. government would be lenient, and at the same time, they were striving to continue to supply Huawei.

　　In terms of OEM, TSMC said that while the company cancelled the supply to Huawei, it was actively applying for and submitting the supply license to the US government. According to the news, TSMC’s previous application was not allowed by the United States. However, TSMC still pointed out that it will continue to try to supply Huawei. The data shows that Huawei is TSMC’s second largest customer, and its revenue contribution is as high as 15%.

　　As for the chip manufacturer, the designer MediaTek has confirmed that at the end of August this year, the company has applied to the US for continued supply of Huawei in accordance with regulations, and the memory chip manufacturer Micron also applied at the same time. In addition, including chip manufacturers Qualcomm, Samsung and SK Hynix, which had previously made it clear that they would not be able to supply Huawei, all made it clear that they had applied for export licenses and sought to continue to supply Huawei.

　　It is worth mentioning that during the supply suspension period, many Huawei suppliers have obtained supply licenses.

　　On Monday (21st), Intel officially said that it had obtained permission to continue supplying Huawei, and Intel is the main supplier of Huawei notebooks. On the 19th, AMD, an American chip company, also said that it had obtained permission to sell its products to some companies in the US "entity list". It is widely believed that "some companies" are Huawei.

　　In fact, many American companies also understand the truth that "you hurt the enemy by one thousand, and you will lose yourself by eight hundred". In June this year, Semiconductor Association of America shouted to the US government that the Trump administration’s ban would not only affect Huawei, but also bring huge restrictions to American companies and even global chip companies. Many chip manufacturers, including Qualcomm, have repeatedly called on the US government to lift the so-called "sanctions".

　　Reflection after ten days of supply suspension: China Core, where to go?

　　"Huawei has been developing in the field of chip design for more than ten years. From being seriously backward, to being a little backward, to catching up, to leading, the R&D investment is huge and the process is very difficult. However, in the field of heavy assets such as chip manufacturing, Huawei did not participate. After September 15, the flagship chip could not be produced, which was a great loss for us. "

　　Of course, as emphasized by Huawei, China enterprises, especially China chip enterprises, can’t pin their hopes on the United States to relax sanctions. "Self-improvement" may be the most effective and only way to achieve real results.

　　In recent years, China has been the largest chip importer in the world. The data shows that in 2018 and 2019, the total value of imported integrated circuits in China exceeded 300 billion US dollars.

　　However, while importing, China’s chip self-sufficiency is not enough. The data shows that in 2019, China’s chip self-sufficiency rate is only about 30%. According to the development plan of relevant departments, in 2025, China is expected to raise its chip self-sufficiency rate to 70%, which is almost the average level of chip power countries such as the United States.

　　In that case, where did China chip get stuck in the neck by the United States? As a huge and complex industry, the chip industry has a long industrial chain. It can be divided into four parts: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing. Except in the field of design, Huawei Hisilicon has a certain breakthrough ability, and in the other three links, especially in the manufacturing link, the ability of domestic manufacturers still has great room for improvement.

　　"No one can extinguish the starlight in the sky." At the Huawei Developers Conference in 2020 held before the supply was cut off, Huawei conveyed its determination and will to work hard to the outside world.

　　In the first half of the extreme pressure in the United States, Huawei still achieved the first global market share of smartphones, the first global market share of wearable devices and the second global market share of smart watches. Notebooks have achieved more than 100% growth, and products such as headphones have achieved more than 100% or even 200% high-speed growth.

　　As Ren Zhengfei, the founder of Huawei, said, "We may encounter unimaginable difficulties, but this is also the biggest opportunity period." Unprecedented difficulties may be the best opportunity to hone enterprises.

　　Huawei’s future is still unknown. However, for China enterprises, it seems to be an important proposition for a long time how to make Huawei and others no longer lonely on the stage of global industrial competition through unremitting efforts. In the face of the big stick sanctions from the United States and the future of the chip industry, I am afraid that it is far more than Huawei itself.