标签： 上海水磨

Stop production, close factories, OEM … How to break the dilemma of automobile overcapacity？

　　Recently, the China Machinery Industry Federation released the operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2019, in which the data of the automobile industry showed that the growth rate of total profit turned from positive to negative, and it showed negative growth for the first time in more than a decade. In the second quarter, the utilization rate of automobile manufacturing capacity was 76.2%, down 2.1 percentage points from the first quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics’ "National Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate" data shows that the capacity utilization rate of China’s automobile manufacturing industry was 77.2% in the first half of 2019, down 3.8% year-on-year.

　　Compared with the normal range of capacity utilization rate of 79% ~ 83%, the figure of 77.2% means that China’s automobile capacity utilization rate has fallen below the "safety line". However, as the signs of recovery in China’s automobile market are still not obvious and the market is weak, the sales data in July showed that the new energy automobile market, which has been growing at a high speed, experienced negative growth for the first time, so the situation of idle production capacity may continue to deteriorate. How to find a way out for excess capacity has become a top priority for many auto companies.

　　The production capacity of car companies exceeds 60 million.

　　In fact, the word overcapacity has been in parallel with the rapid development of China’s automobile industry. As early as 2006, the State Council clearly pointed out that the automobile industry was overcapacity. The National Development and Reform Commission also issued documents to control new vehicle projects and appropriately improve investment access conditions, aiming at curbing overcapacity. At that time, the annual sales volume of China cars was 7.2 million.

　　However, with the irrational growth of China’s automobiles, many automobile companies have long forgotten the overcapacity in the face of double-digit annual growth. 10 million vehicles, 20 million vehicles … … The huge increase in automobile production and sales has made many automobile companies see the great potential of the China market, and they are overly optimistic about the market expectations. Many automobile companies have started to invest blindly and continue to expand their production capacity reserves. The news that "the fourth factory of XX automobile enterprise is officially put into production" and "the foundation laying ceremony of the fifth factory of XX automobile enterprise is officially held" is constantly seen in newspapers. According to the report "Capacity of China Automobile Industry at the End of 2015", by the end of 2015, China’s automobile production capacity was 31.22 million. Among them, during the period from 2011 to 2015, China’s new automobile production capacity increased by 10.87 million vehicles; By 2016-2017, the new production capacity will be about 6 million vehicles. At present, China’s automobile production capacity is still in the stage of continuous expansion. While auto companies are still investing and building factories for the rapid growth of the market and think that the auto market will climb further, China’s auto market suffered the first decline in sales in 2018, and began to continue to slump. The problem of overcapacity in the auto manufacturing industry, which has not attracted enough attention, has finally been exposed.

　　In 2018, the planned annual production capacity of China’s automobile industry has exceeded 60 million vehicles, among which the announced production capacity of new energy vehicles will exceed 20 million vehicles by 2020, which is 10 times the sales target of the Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Automobile Industry. According to the data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the annual automobile output in 2018 is only 27.809 million, and the growth rate of production capacity reserve is far greater than the growth of market demand, so it is inevitable that a large amount of production capacity will be idle.

　　The capacity utilization rate of many car companies is less than half.

　　Although the capacity utilization rate of China’s automobile manufacturing industry in the first half of 2019 given by the National Bureau of Statistics is 77.2%, in fact, the capacity utilization rate of many automobile companies has already been lower than this figure. In the automobile industry research report released some time ago, Guosen Securities pointed out that in 2018, the capacity utilization rate of Geely Automobile, FAW Group, Chery Automobile, BYD Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, Dongfeng yueda Kia, Changan Ford and Haima Automobile did not reach 70%. According to foreign media reports, in the first half of 2019, the capacity utilization rate of Ford’s factory in China was only 11%; The capacity utilization rate of the joint venture between Peugeot Citroen Group and Changan Automobile is only 1%, and that of the joint venture with Dongfeng Motor is only 22%.

　　According to public information, Changan Ford has five vehicle factories in Chongqing, Harbin and Hangzhou, with a total production capacity of about 1.6 million vehicles. After Ford’s sales in China reached its peak level three years ago, it sold a total of 957,000 new cars in 2016, and then continued to decline. In 2018, the output was 387,000, and the capacity utilization rate was 24.2%. In the first half of 2019, Changan Ford sold a total of 75,000 new cars, a year-on-year decrease of 67%.

　　Another hardest hit area with idle production capacity is French car companies. Founded in 1992, Dongfeng and PSA each hold 50% of the shares. It owns two brands, Dongfeng Peugeot and Dongfeng Citroen, and four production bases, among which the first, second and third factories of Shenlong are located in Wuhan, and the fourth factory is located in Chengdu. The data shows that the production capacity of the first three factories is 300,000, 150,000 and 300,000 respectively, and the total production capacity of the four factories is 990,000. According to the production and sales data released by the Federation, in the first half of 2019, Shenlong Automobile produced a total of 64,000 vehicles, down 61.6% year-on-year. Changan Peugeot Citroen has produced only 107 vehicles, down 96.9% year-on-year, while its first-phase factory has a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. Serious idle production capacity has attracted the attention of PSA Group executives. Previously, in the second quarter earnings conference call, Philippede Rovira, the global chief financial officer of PSA Group, said that PSA Group would solve the problem of idle capacity of Shenlong Automobile by renting factory facilities.

　　The overcapacity problem of Renault, another legal brand, in China is also very prominent. The total production capacity of Renault Wuhan plant is 150,000 vehicles, and only 48,000 vehicles were produced in 2018, with a capacity utilization rate of 31.9%. In the first quarter of this year, Dongfeng Renault’s capacity utilization rate was only 15.2%, with 5,700 vehicles produced and 5,800 sold.

　　The situation of Korean car companies is equally bad. Since entering the China market in 2002, Hyundai Motor has quickly won the favor of the market by relying on the advantages of high cost performance in joint venture brands, and in 2013— In 2016, the annual sales volume exceeded one million. However, the sales of Hyundai Motor in China plummeted because it didn’t follow the changes of consumers’ tastes and launch products that kept pace with the market demand. In 2018, Hyundai Motor’s sales in China dropped to 790,000 vehicles, only half of the total production capacity of 1.65 million vehicles in China. Among them, Hyundai Motor Chongqing No.5 Factory was completed in 2017, and the operating rate has been very low. According to BusinessKorea, Hyundai Motor is preparing to transform its Chongqing factory into an electric vehicle factory to revive its declining business in China.

　　The situation of the same brother Dongfeng yueda Kia is similar. According to the 2018 annual report, Dongfeng yueda Kia has three factories in Yancheng headquarters, with a total production capacity of 890,000 passenger cars per year. Based on the sales volume of 370,000 vehicles of Dongfeng yueda Kia in 2018, its capacity utilization rate is less than half.

　　Japanese car companies have insufficient production capacity and are still expanding.

　　Although the overall capacity of China’s automobile industry is overcapacity, the capacity utilization rate of some automobile enterprises is not only higher than the safety line of 80%, but even the capacity is insufficient. According to the data released by Bernstein, a research consultancy, at present, the capacity utilization rate of Daimler and BMW joint ventures in China has exceeded 90%. The capacity utilization rate of GM’s joint venture in China is 88%. Volkswagen’s joint ventures in China have also exceeded 80%. The capacity utilization rate of the joint venture between Honda and Toyota in China even exceeds 100%. Relevant persons of Dongfeng Honda even revealed in an interview with the media that the capacity utilization rate of this enterprise is close to 140%.

　　Due to a serious shortage of production capacity, Toyota is still starting a new factory. At present, Toyota’s two joint ventures in China, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota, have eight factories in Changchun, Chengdu, Tianjin and Guangzhou. The total production capacity of FAW Toyota’s three factories and five factories is 622,000 vehicles, and the total production capacity of GAC Toyota’s three factories is 480,000 vehicles. FAW Toyota sold more than 720,000 vehicles in 2018, with a target of 745,000 vehicles in 2019, and GAC Toyota sold 580,000 vehicles in 2018. 720,000 vehicles plus 580,000 vehicles, which shows that Toyota’s eight factories in China have been working overtime and overloaded in 2018, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 100%.

　　In 2019, Toyota’s sales target in China was 1.6 million vehicles, up 8.4% year-on-year, and the target in 2020 was 2 million vehicles. Toyota’s production capacity in China is only 1.1 million vehicles, compared with 2 million vehicles, there is still a gap of nearly 900,000 vehicles. Therefore, at the off-line ceremony of the brand-new TNGA Asian Dragon on March 22nd, FAW Toyota announced the completion of a new TNGA plant, and simultaneously started the new plant capacity increase project. According to the relevant EIA report, FAW Toyota has started to increase the capacity of 240,000 new energy vehicles, including 120,000 in Tianjin Xinyi Plant and 120,000 in Changchun Fengyue Plant. The 12-million-yuan expansion of GAC Toyota’s third plant has also been officially launched. At the same time, the fourth factory with a total investment of 4.988 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 200,000 new energy vehicles is carrying out preliminary work, which is expected to be the production base of new energy vehicles exported by Toyota to Asia in the future.

　　Where is the way out for idle capacity?

　　A few car companies urgently need to expand production capacity, but most car companies still need to deal with idle production capacity. For some car companies, how to digest excess capacity has become a major event related to the survival of enterprises.

　　For example, Shenlong automobile, which has been in the vortex of various rumors recently. Since 2015, the sales of Shenlong Automobile have been falling. 705,000 vehicles, 600,200 vehicles, 377,500 vehicles and 253,400 vehicles. The number in the first half of this year was 63,000 vehicles, down 60.05% year-on-year. The decline in sales volume is undoubtedly accompanied by the idleness of production capacity and manpower. How to solve this problem? There are rumors that Dongfeng Motor wants to sell its PSA shares. After clarification by both parties, it is reported that Dongfeng Motor and PSA Group will lay off employees and sell the factory … …

　　In addition to unconfirmed news, it is certain that many auto companies have taken action early in order to transform idle capacity. Dongfeng yueda Kia temporarily closed an automobile manufacturing plant in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, and plans to start producing electric vehicles in the plant by the first half of 2021.

　　Compared with closure and suspension, changing production is a relatively good choice. Since last year, BAIC Group has adjusted its industrial structure, product structure and industrial chain, and transferred the Beijing branch of BAIC to Beijing Benz, becoming the third factory of Beijing Benz, and turning it into the production base of Mercedes-Benz high-end new energy vehicles in the future.

　　Some companies have chosen to work for the new car-making forces. For example, Jianghuai OEM Weilai, Haima OEM Tucki, Changan Suzuki OEM Luchi Automobile, Dongfeng yueda Kia OEM Chinese Express & HELIP; … Although the OEM model has been controversial, after the cooperation between the two parties, traditional car companies can effectively revitalize idle production capacity, and new car-making forces can also save the construction cycle and quickly reach mass production.

　　In addition to OEM, it is also a good idea for traditional car companies to warm up with new car-making forces and set up joint ventures. For example, Guangzhou Automobile Group will set up a joint venture with Weilai Automobile, and Tianjin faw xiali will set up a joint venture with Bojun Automobile. For the new car-making forces, they can obtain the qualification of new energy production and sales, at the same time, save the cost and cycle of investment and factory construction, rely on the manufacturing advantages of traditional car companies, and create brand-new products through joint development (the best cooperation state) to achieve the purpose of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. For traditional car companies, idle production capacity can be reused. Bundling the brand promotion of new forces to build cars can also enhance their brand influence. So far, the two sides have achieved win-win cooperation.

　　Expert opinion

　　Is OEM the best way to solve idle capacity?

　　Compared with stopping production, closing factories or selling land, OEM for new car-making forces has become a good choice for many enterprises with serious overcapacity.

　　However, many professionals believe that OEM is only one of the transition strategies. "The loss of fixed assets can’t stop, and OEM earns points." Whether it is a traditional car company or a new force to build a car, OEM is not a long-term solution. " An insider of an independent brand said.

　　Recently, it is reported that the draft management measures for OEM have been drawn up, which requires R&D investment, production capacity and sales volume as restrictive conditions, and the threshold for OEM and OEM car companies has been greatly improved. For example, in the past three years, the domestic R&D investment has reached at least 4 billion yuan; In the past two years, the sales volume of pure electric passenger cars worldwide has reached at least 15,000; The OEM contract must be signed for 3 years or more, and the annual production capacity of the OEM in the same place should reach at least 50,000 vehicles; Enterprises need to have paid-in capital of billions of RMB; At most, it can only be contracted by two car companies.

　　"The OEM model is more like a transitional means. Because with the growth of output and sales, it is essential to build a factory and have independent research and development and production strength. This is also conducive to solving possible production technical problems and improving production efficiency. " Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said.

　　This view has also been confirmed by Shen Hui, chairman of Weimar Automobile. Shen Hui believes that the cold winter of the automobile and capital markets has not dissipated, and capital will be more concentrated in the head enterprises that have achieved batch delivery. "Generally speaking, high-quality production capacity will not be idle, and idle production capacity will not be of high quality. Therefore, encouraging the coexistence of various production modes such as OEM is also an important lever for utilizing and upgrading idle and backward production capacity." However, Weimar chose a self-built factory with higher cost and greater difficulty instead of OEM because it attached importance to product quality and quality. "The self-built factory can control the quality and quality on the basis, and can continuously upgrade and improve, and at the same time realize C2M customized production."

　　Simply speaking, C2M customized production is to make products meet the individual needs of consumers. Zhu Weihua, secretary-general of the Information Service Committee of China Automobile Industry Association, said frankly: "The overcapacity of automobiles needs C2M rescue."

　　Zhu Weihua believes that at present, all kinds of personalized customization are pseudo-customization in nature, and car owners have only a limited number of choices in the end. Car companies are still selling by production in essence, but they only produce more configuration varieties and give users more choices. It is impossible to talk about the user placing an order and then producing it. As a result, car owners give up their personalized choice, and car companies waste their costs on spare parts inventory and dealer inventory, and there is no incentive to optimize production and manufacturing costs.

　　Judging from the grim situation of the current automobile market, it is possible for car sellers to satisfy the needs of a small number of users only by working very hard to please users. If users are not given more choices, it is impossible to sell a large number of cars. The larger the car companies, the more they need C2M, and then consider the differences between car networking and electric car service packages, and consider the personalized marketing of these personalized services.

　　In addition to starting with products, many people in the industry also suggest that enterprises should integrate and hold a group to keep warm. Dong Yang, the first vice chairman of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association, once said that the lack of cooperation is an important shortcoming among China brand enterprises. If we can get better development without joining forces in the past, then in the current market environment, it is even more important for China car companies to strengthen cooperation and learn from each other’s strong points for mutual benefit and win-win results.

　　Giving full play to the synergistic effect and establishing alliance relations are the forms to cope with the increasingly severe competition in the market. Last year, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan took the lead in establishing strategic cooperation in four areas: forward-looking common technological innovation, automobile full value chain operation, expanding overseas markets and exploring new business models. In addition, traditional car companies, internet companies, travel service companies and new car-making enterprises have begun to cooperate hand in hand in various fields. The cooperation with new power enterprises has also gradually expanded from the earliest OEM production to in-depth cooperation in research and development, procurement and sales.

　　When the downward trend of the automobile market encounters industrial transformation and upgrading, there will be a large number of car companies whose operating conditions are worrying. Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, once said that in the next 3-5 years, the shutdown and transfer of car companies will no longer be information. Most automobile enterprises will be eliminated. Faced with the uncertainty and complexity of the market, it is necessary for car companies to integrate and develop before, between new forces and traditional car companies to achieve a win-win situation.

　　Text/reporter Li Dongying

Bao Shi： Write a good novel, and a director may come to you.

　　Bao Shi’s collection of novels "Baizhuang" published in 2003 includes "The Story of Zizhou".

　　□ Yangcheng Evening News reporter Zhu Shaojie

　　Recently, director Zhi Li signed a contract with writer Bao Shi, and reached a consensus on adapting Bao Shi’s novel The Story of Zizhou. The two sides will jointly make a film of the same name. The Story of Zizhou is a literary IP with great market value (which can be used to adapt the copyright material of TV series and movies). In August 2006, it won the seventh "Guangdong Luxun Literature and Art Award and Literature Award".

　　In an exclusive interview with Yangcheng Evening News reporter, Zhi Li said that Bao Shi’s The Story of Zizhou made him read the characteristics of an era and a generation. The novel tells the story of an ordinary boy: a father who is rich in knowledge but poor, a beautiful and capable mother who loves money but is cold, and a 12-year-old boy can’t tell who is right or wrong. After his father died of illness, he went from the city to the town alone, went to his grandfather alone, and decided not to go back … … Zhi Li believes that The Story of Zizhou is a China version of Green Book, which tells the collision between rural and urban values in China. "Looking at the world of adults from the perspective of children is the uniqueness of this novel." He told reporters that the sincere feelings of three generations of grandfather, son and grandson in the novel made him cry twice.

　　Zhi Li saw The Story of Zizhou through a friend’s introduction seven or eight years ago, and he was already very interested in the story. He believes that China films need to speak with content. "Today, the audience in China has become rational, and creators need to use good stories to achieve a double harvest of art and market." Although Bao Shi’s story is very delicate, there is still room for adjustment in film expression. Zhi Li said that he and his team are currently adapting The Story of Zizhou, hoping to start from the original story and bring out thoughts on social values.

　　The Story of Zizhou is a companion piece of the film My Father and Mother. Bao Shi’s novella "Memorial" was adapted into the film "My Father and Mother", and the film won the Silver Bear Award at the 50th Berlin Film Festival, the Excellent Film Award at the China Film Watch Award in 1999, the Best Film Award at the 23rd Hundred Flowers Award, the Best Film Award at the 20th Golden Rooster Award, the Excellent Feature Film Award at the Shanghai Film Critics Award, the Sundance Film Festival Award in the United States and the Amethyst Award at the Iranian International Film Festival.

　　It is reported that the film "The Story of Zizhou" will start at the end of this year and be released in 2020. Bao Shi accepted an exclusive interview with the reporter of Yangcheng Evening News. He said that the novel "The Story of Zizhou" was written for intellectuals of this era and reflected the historical brand of an era.

　　Interview A wants to write about the situation of intellectuals.

　　Yangcheng Evening News: What is the opportunity for this adaptation of The Story of Zizhou into a movie?

　　Bao Shi: It has been 20 years since The Story of Zizhou was published. To be honest, it surprised me a little. In March this year, director Zhi Li approached me through a friend and asked about the purchase of the novel copyright. Soon he came to Guangzhou to sign the contract. When we first discussed it, the director also suggested that I be a screenwriter. For the sake of health and time, I declined and suggested that he hire someone else to be a screenwriter. Another factor is that I don’t want to be involved in this story again. The same thing made me do it for the second time, and I lost interest.

　　Yangcheng Evening News: What kind of work is the Story of Zizhou in your creation?

　　Bao Shi: This work was created in the 1990s, and it was published back and forth with the original "Memorial" of My Father and Mother. I hope to write about the situation of intellectuals at that time, including their living conditions, mental state and so on, through the story of Zizhou. The Story of Zizhou is just a shell, the core of which is to express and discuss the embarrassment of cultural people in society. They have neither money nor power, but they are particularly "stubborn". After the novel was published, it was included in one of my collections. When some friends saw it, they all said it was well written, and some even cried for it. Director Zhi Li told me that he was also very moved when he read this novel. I guess it was the emotion in this story that touched him.

　　In this story, Zizhou’s father works in a group art museum and writes novels in his spare time. Life is poor and stubborn, and no one around him likes him. His classmates and friends, including his wife, don’t take him seriously In his hometown, a small town, people’s attitudes towards him are quite the opposite. Many people in the town, including his first lover, think that he can write novels and publish articles in newspapers and periodicals, which is very promising. I just want to show such a phenomenon through such a comparison. I don’t know what this phenomenon can mean.

　　Being able to talk and feel is the premise of my cooperation with the director.

　　B

　　Yangcheng Evening News: What do you think of the role of the novel author in the film adaptation?

　　Bao Shi: Film is the art of directors, and it is director-centered. As an original author or a screenwriter, you may have to obey the director’s feelings when creating. This is one of its characteristics. Then the author must understand this. But this is not to say that there is no author’s own voice. If you cooperate with a good director, and the director and the screenwriter respect and inspire each other, the screenwriter can provide better things to the director. The director has a vision and will recognize these things, which will add color to the work. If he meets a bad director, he will not adopt the writer’s good idea. In fact, there is nothing the author can do.

　　Yangcheng Evening News: How did you choose the director? How to cooperate with the director?

　　Bao Shi: According to my limited experience, it mainly depends on whether I can get along with the director. Being able to talk and have feelings is the premise of cooperation. Actually, I didn’t take the initiative to write a movie script. Since "My Father and Mother", others have been looking for me. All along, I have been writing novels at my own pace and from my own heart, and I have never thought of adapting them into movies. After "My Father and Mother", some directors came to me, and some of them were quite well paid, but I basically refused because I couldn’t talk properly and didn’t feel anything. Later, I only cooperated with director ZhangJiaBei in two films. One is Cherry, which was released and won several awards. ZhangJiaBei, an overseas Chinese in Japan, made a film in Japan, and once made a pottery humanoid, which had a certain influence. That year, he called me from Japan and wanted to shoot a story about mother’s love. Because he saw My Father and Mother, he thought I could write this story well, so he came to me. I didn’t say yes right away. I suggested to him that we’d better meet and talk, and then decide whether to cooperate or not when we feel it. Later, when he came back from Japan, we met in Shanghai and talked for a few days. I felt a little bit, so I wrote him "Cherry". The second film was called "Wind in the Sky" and was not released.

　　Yangcheng Evening News: Novelists write sharply about the complexity of human nature in their works, but they may not be able to fully present it in movies. What do you think of this trade-off?

　　Bao Shi: Generally speaking, novels are richer than movies. Novels are expressed in words, so there is a lot of room for imagination and tossing and turning, which can fully express the author’s own feelings. For example, when describing the beauty of a woman, you can imagine her beauty infinitely. Film is a weakness in this respect, because it fixes what you imagine. But its performance is very direct and intuitive. Therefore, some of the contents in the novel can’t be fully presented by the film, but it can only be said to be a regrettable art. But a good movie, it will express the words to the greatest extent possible. Classic movies can generally do it.

　　On the other hand, words may not be able to do what is to be expressed in movies. For example, a very classic expression may not be able to say many words. So my understanding is that literature and film have their own strengths. Now there are some people who write novels and despise film creation. I don’t agree with this view. When a movie was made, it was made with real money. The adaptation of literary works into films also requires strict screening. He (the director) should either consider the box office factor or the possibility of winning the prize. Of course, the level of film production is mixed, but there are also rubbish writers in the writers’ team. Therefore, you have no need or qualification to despise other art categories. To put it another way, the writer’s works are published, published and then adapted into movies and TV series, which objectively plays the role of promoting literary works. Why not? So there is no need to refuse it.

　　Young writers are not advised to write movies and TV scripts as soon as they come out.

　　C

　　Yangcheng Evening News: Novelists and literary works play an important role in the development of China’s film creation. On the other hand, film directors often complain that there are too few good scripts and stories. What do you think of this?

　　Bao Shi: Most excellent films are full of characters and profound thoughts, all of which are adapted from literary works. This is already a consensus. Novelists can only write a good novel when they mobilize their rich life accumulation and work hard. When such a novel is to be adapted into a movie, its connotation and details are naturally much better than other scripts. Rather than film scripts adapted from excellent novels, most of them come from professional screenwriters. There is often a problem in the scripts they write — — The fabricated traces are heavy and make the audience feel fake.

　　This phenomenon was very obvious in the 1980s.

　　Professional screenwriters may pay too much attention to the plot, which is a prominent problem for them. Screenwriters and writers are actually two different ways of writing novels. Now the film, in fact, has a routine, forming a routine. But a good novel can’t fall into any routine, nor can it be repeated with any works.

　　Yangcheng Evening News: Many young writers now want to be screenwriters. What do you think?

　　Bao Shi: From my limited experience, I don’t recommend writing movies and TV plays as soon as I come out, because the success rate is relatively low. The output of movies is actually very limited, and the cycle is relatively long. There are only a few well-known directors. From the very beginning, I think it’s risky to write a script. From the most practical point of view, I suggest writing a novel first. It’s more likely that the novel will be published. With so many publications in China and almost no threshold online platforms, it’s relatively easy to publish a novel. Writing a movie is different. It’s better to write a good novel first. When a good novel comes out, a director may come to you.

Teacher recruitment examination questions leaked？ The discipline inspection and supervision department has been involved in the investigation!

　　Cctv newsOn June 23rd, a contract teacher recruitment examination was held in Dongxihu District, Wuhan City, Hubei Province, with more than 3,000 participants. However, after the examination, some candidates reported that the examination questions were similar to a forecast paper on the market in a large area. What happened?

　

　　On June 28th, the reporter found the Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, Wuhan City, which organized the recruitment examination on the same test paper.

Li Xingtong, Deputy Director of Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, Wuhan

Li Xingtong, Deputy Director of Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, Wuhan

　　Li Xingtong, Deputy Director of Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, WuhanThis is the test paper of our written test, and this is the so-called sprint prediction test in a training institution. You see, the first question of our written test is exactly the same as the first question in it (the prediction paper), from the first question to the later part of this to the 40 questions, and the whole order is made according to this.

　　According to the examinee’s reflection, the score of 100-point test questions and similar test questions will reach 60 points.

　　candidate for an entrance examinationEveryone is saying that there are 40 questions on that topic that are exactly the same as the forecast paper of an institution, and the ABCD order of the questions and even the answers has not changed.

　　Invalid test results, re-test the organization

　　On June 26th, the government of Dongxihu District issued a notice on its official website, announcing that the exam results on June 23rd were invalid, and will organize a retake on July 7th.

　　Li Xingtong, Deputy Director of Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, WuhanFor those candidates who don’t want to take the second exam, we will refund all their registration fees. For those candidates who are not from Wuhan, we will reimburse 200 yuan for the first day or the same day’s accommodation. For those candidates who need to take transportation, we will actually reimburse their transportation expenses.

　　It is understood that in the first recruitment examination, the Dongxihu District Education Bureau was entrusted by Party A to a third party, that is, the state-owned enterprise under the Wuhan Human Resources and Social Security Bureau to organize relevant recruitment work, including questions. There is such a large area of similarity. What is the problem?

　　Li Xingtong, Deputy Director of Education Bureau of Dongxihu District, WuhanAlthough we entrusted a third party to carry out this examination in strict accordance with the relevant procedures, our education department is the administrative department after all. We are not considerate in our work and lack of supervision. I once again express my deep apologies to our candidates.

Zhang lei, head of Zhiyong Accountability Office in Dongxihu District, Wuhan.

Zhang lei, head of Zhiyong Accountability Office in Dongxihu District, Wuhan.

　　Zhang lei, Head of the Accountability Office of Dongxihu District, Wuhan:We have combined the preliminary evidence and locked the relevant responsible departments. In the next step, we will intensify the investigation. Once we find any violation of discipline and discipline, we will seriously pursue the responsibility and accountability, and will never tolerate it.

　　In view of the re-examination, relevant departments have made corresponding rectification measures.

　　Liu Xiangdong, Deputy Inspector of Wuhan Ministry of Human Resources and Social SecurityEspecially in the process of making questions and propositions, we should come up with corresponding systems to prevent such phenomena from happening again in the future.

　　It is understood that the local discipline inspection and supervision department has been involved in the investigation and initiated the corresponding accountability procedures. We will also continue to pay attention.

Blizzard continues! Snowfall in the north stopped for 5 days, and rain and snow in the south continued until New Year’s Eve.

This round of freezing rain and snow is experiencing the strongest period. In the past 24 hours, Jianghuai area has become the core area of heavy snowfall in this process, with heavy snowstorms in central and eastern Hubei, southern Anhui and central and northern Jiangsu, and heavy snowstorms in some areas.

This round of freezing rain and snow is going through the strongest period. In the past 24 hours, the Jianghuai area has become the core area of heavy snowfall in this process. Heavy snowstorms have generally appeared in central and eastern Hubei, southern Anhui and central and northern Jiangsu, and heavy snowstorms have occurred in some areas.

The snow along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is "black" …

This rain and snow process is not only strong, but also extremely complicated mixed precipitation. Rain, snow, ice particles, freezing rain, thunder … all of them! For example, in Yichang, Hubei Province, rain was observed at 23: 00 on the 2 nd, and it turned to snow at around 4: 00 on the 3 rd. At the same time, thunder and snow were also detected.

In addition, the snowfall in Hefei, Anhui Province from 08: 00 to 14: 00 today was 8.5 mm, which almost caught up with the magnitude of the 24-hour standard blizzard (10 mm). There was also freezing rain, and the power line accumulated ice of 28 mm.

Due to the low temperature, the efficiency of snow accumulation in Anhui, Henan and other places is high, and the accumulated snow in many places has exceeded 10 cm. According to the actual situation of snow this afternoon, the depth of snow in Guoyang, Lixin, Yingshang, Bengbu, Funan, Jieshou, Fuyang, Wuhe and Mingguang in northern Anhui is 13 cm, 13 cm, 12 cm, 12 cm, 11 cm, 11 cm, and the snow is enough to have no ankles.

There will be heavy snowfall in Hubei, Anhui and other places from tonight to noon tomorrow. It is estimated that from 20: 00 on February 3 to 20: 00 on February 4, there will be heavy blizzards in parts of southern Henan, most of Hubei, central and northern Anhui, western Jiangsu, northern Hunan, eastern Chongqing and northeastern Guizhou, among which there will be heavy blizzards (20-24 mm) in parts of northeastern Hubei and central Anhui. The depth of newly added snow in the above areas is 3 ~ 10 cm, and the local area can reach about 20 cm.

From night to tomorrow, there will be freezing rain in parts of central Anhui, southern and eastern Hubei, most of Hunan, central and eastern Guizhou and southeastern Chongqing. The accumulated freezing rainfall can reach 1 ~ 6 mm, and the local area is about 10 mm.

In terms of specific cities, the snowfall from Wuhan to Hefei will continue to increase in the early morning of tomorrow, and there will still be blizzards and local blizzards; It will also be snowing heavily in Nanjing tomorrow. In addition, Jingmen, Jingzhou, Yichang and other places in Hubei will have heavy snow tonight; There will be freezing rain at Yueyang and Xiangtan stations in Hunan.

In the next two days, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei and Anhui will become the areas with the most concentrated freezing rain and heavy snowfall. Among them, there may be both freezing rain and snowfall in the northwest of Hunan, eastern Hubei and central Anhui, which has a great impact.

Affected by rain and snow, most of the traffic in the central and eastern regions will be affected, such as Shanghai-Chongqing, Shanghai-Shaanxi, Fuyin, Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao and other expressways, which will have a long section affected by blizzard and freezing rain. It is best for returnees to avoid the period with the strongest rain and snow, pay attention to the latest road traffic information, plan their trips reasonably and drive safely.

After the 5th, the snowfall in the northern region will shrink sharply and basically end on the 6th. However, due to the active warm and humid air flow in the south, a large range of rain and snow weather in the south will last until New Year’s Eve.

It is estimated that until the 8th, there will be a large range of moderate to heavy rain and local heavy rain in the south of the Yangtze River and northern South China, and the accumulated rainfall is large. The accumulated rainfall in Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangdong can reach more than 100mm, which is much higher. Especially in Hunan and Guizhou, there will still be mixed rain and snow.

The continuous large-scale rain and snow will also cause a "heavy blow" to the temperature in the central and eastern regions. Especially in Anhui, Hunan, Henan, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places with a wide range of rain and snow and lasting time, the highest temperature in many places will be more than 6 C lower than normal, and the local temperature will be about 10 C! In the next four or five days, the highest temperature in many cities, including Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Nanjing and Changsha, is only about 0℃. With the rainy and snowy weather, the body will feel very wet and cold.

It is expected that before the Spring Festival, most areas in the south will continue to be in a state of low temperature and wet cold, and it is necessary to wait for the New Year to get warmer.

[Editor: Li Yangzi]

How did the whistle and brilliant colors of fireworks come about？

When Xiao Bian was very young, he liked to run to the balcony to watch fireworks every New Year. After a bang, a bright and colorful fireworks burst into the distant sky, gorgeous and beautiful.
All kinds of fireworks @Wikipedia
Therefore, Xiao Bian, who was young and ignorant at that time, couldn’t help wondering … Why did a small box on the ground look like that after being ignited? How on earth are fireworks designed and made in order to show such a brilliant effect?
The picture comes from the Internet.
There are many kinds of fireworks, and the fireworks seen in general TV programs, that is, the kind that flies to the sky with a bang and then explodes, are a special kind of fireworks called fireworks.
Fireworks @Wikipedia
Fireworks bloom can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage is the launch of the fireworks bomb: with a bang, something on the ground flew into the sky. The second stage is probably the burst of fireworks, and a firework exploded in the sky. What happened in these two stages respectively?
The internal structure of a certain kind of fireworks is probably like this [1].
Fireworks structure @pyrouniverse.com
Hit the fireworks into the sky
When we lit the fuse (fast fuse), the fuse gave the friends time to evacuate and delayed the explosion. When the fuse burns to the propellant, ignite the propellant. Propellant is generally black powder discovered by the ancient alchemist in China. After the fireworks are lit, the sound of "bang" is the explosion of this thing. The main components of black powder are sulfur, charcoal and potassium nitrate, and the reaction formula of explosion is complicated. A typical chemical reaction equation looks like this (familiar with one sulfur, two nitrates and three carbons):
This explosion reaction produces a lot of heat and high-temperature gas, which is similar to the principle of rocket launch. The high-temperature gas produces huge thrust and pushes the shell into the sky. In the process of flying high into the air, we often hear the whistling sound, which is a sound effect of fireworks. It comes from a special thermal-acoustic coupling combustion-pulsating combustion.
Pulsating combustion
Pulsating combustion is a special unstable combustion process, and the parameters such as temperature, pressure and airflow speed in the combustion zone will fluctuate periodically with time. In the process of industrial application of pulsating combustion, there will be a lot of noise radiated from the tail pipe of the burner [2]. This technology involves many nonlinear processes of thermo-acoustic coupling, large amplitude acoustic wave effect and so on, which is very complicated, so there is no relevant theory at present [3].
But the fact that there is no relevant theory doesn’t mean that we are not here or can’t use it.
People engaged in fireworks production already know that in order to make fireworks produce this whistling sound, it is necessary to use a special kind of combustion product-flute agent. Oxidizers (potassium perchlorate and potassium chlorate) and flute agents (mainly derivatives of benzene) are mixed and packed into paper or plastic tubes, and pulsating combustion will occur after ignition, resulting in crisp flute sound [4].
@ References [4]
This pulsating combustion causes thousands of violent vibrations of air every second, releasing high-frequency sound waves. Therefore, the combustion chamber loaded with flute agent and oxidant acts as a propeller, and at the same time, it also emits a sharp whistle-like sound.
In addition to the fireworks launched, there is also a famous fireworks with sound. Xiaobian’s hometown likes to call him a monkey, which is this thing:
@bilibili-av8389766
The ingredients of the propellant used in this kind of thing are potassium perchlorate and potassium hydrogen phthalate. And this potassium hydrogen phthalate, as can be seen from the above table, is also a flute agent (although the sound frequency emitted by combustion is unstable, it still produces a sound pressure of 100dB).
Burst out a firework.
After the propellant is detonated, the delay lead is ignited and the time is started. By the time the shell flies to high altitude and needs to be ignited, the delay lead is almost burned out. So the explosive was detonated and the stars were blown all over the sky. The figure of the fireworks explosion depends on the position of the stars in the shell. If the medicine makes the fireworks explode into a specific shape, it is necessary to design the arrangement of the stars in the fireworks subtly [5].
What the hell is this star? It is the most crucial and mysterious part of the whole fireworks display ~
Its main components are magnesium powder, potassium perchlorate and metal salt or metal powder [6].
Star Composition @ Paperclip-How to Make Explosive Fireworks
After the star is ignited, magnesium powder as reducing agent and potassium perchlorate as oxidizing agent burn violently, giving off a lot of light and heat (but not gas) and becoming the shining things in the fireworks.
But how did the colors of fireworks come from? This involves an important phenomenon related to physics and chemistry-flame reaction.
flame reaction
Simple metals or their compounds will evaporate into individual particles at extremely high temperature, and only individual particles can exhibit flame reaction. (There is no flame reaction in bulk solid samples, because the luminescence of bulk materials is mainly related to the movement of electrons in the materials, and there are various electrons in different movement states in bulk solid samples, so the spectrum of light emitted by bulk materials is very wide and does not present a relatively single color [7]). However, the free metal simple substance or metal ion in the flame will be excited to an excited state with higher energy at high temperature.
However, the excited atom at higher energy is unstable, and it will always transition to the most stable ground state with the lowest energy. In this process, the photon energy (hν) emitted by the atom is exactly equal to the energy difference between the excited state (energy E2) and the ground state (energy E1).
@Wikipedia
The wavelength of photons emitted in this way does not depend on the temperature of the evaporated metal particles, but only on the energy difference between the two energy levels where the transition occurs, and this energy difference is only related to the kind of atoms.
Therefore, different metal ions will have different colors. In this way, we can use various metals and metal compounds to produce various colors.
The metals or metal compounds in the stars, heated by the huge heat released by the burning of magnesium and potassium perchlorate, emit their own light through the flame reaction.
The color of flame reaction [8]
tag
It’s been more than a dozen Spring Festival from a silly child who knows nothing to today’s Xiaobian. Looking at the manuscript, I can’t help but think of myself skipping in front of fireworks more than ten years ago. Time flies, the sun and the moon fly. Although it is more and more difficult to see the fireworks bloom, their physical and chemical principles are becoming more and more clear.
Anyway, it’s the Spring Festival. While enjoying the beautiful and gorgeous fireworks, don’t miss the same beautiful and gorgeous physical and chemical principles behind the fireworks ~
Ps: Places where fireworks and firecrackers are prohibited should strictly abide by the regulations.
reference data
[1] https://steemit.com/science/@xenvy04/the-chemistry-of-fireworks-happy-fourth-of-july
Shao Dongwei, Wang Junfa, Liu Yuanjun, et al. Research and application of pulsating combustion technology [J]. Modern Agriculture, 2009 (7):41-43.
Wu Yunfei, Deng Kai, Shen Zhongliang, et al. Development of pulsating combustion technology [J]. Light Industry Machinery, 2013 (1):106-110.
Lan Haikang. The relationship between flute agent and chemical structure [J]. Fireworks Technology and Market, 1994(1):20-21.
[5] https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/86164747
[6] How to make explosive fireworks
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_test
[8] https://www.compoundchem.com/2013/12/30/the-chemistry-of-fireworks/
Editor: Luna
Reporting/feedback

Overseas investors increase the allocation of China stock market-international institutions cast a ＂vote of confidence＂ in China market.

　　Recently, a number of international investment institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have been "singing more" on the China stock market, and many institutions have even taken out "real money and silver" to buy more China assets.

　　Experts said that with the implementation of a series of steady growth measures in China and the accelerated optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the expectation of China’s economic stabilization and rebound has become clearer, attracting international institutions to re-examine the allocation value of China’s assets. In the future, under the background of China’s deepening the high-level institutional opening-up of the capital market, the efforts of international institutions to "buy in buy buy" are worth looking forward to.

　　Institutional upward adjustment expectations

　　Recently, a number of overseas investment institutions have increased their allocation to the China stock market.

　　On December 4th, Morgan Stanley upgraded the China stock market from "standard" to "over-allocation", and it is predicted that the MSCI China Index will rise by 14% by the end of 2023. Wang Ying, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley China, said that the evaluation framework shows that the prevention and control measures of China epidemic are continuously optimized, the real estate market is stabilized, and the regulatory adjustment is in the final stage, so the stock risk premium may be improved, so the target price for the entire China market is raised, and there is a greater chance of revaluation by 2023.

　　Coincidentally, on November 30, Goldman Sachs also said that it would also give a proposal of "high allocation" for A-share investment in 2023, and it is expected that the valuation of A-shares will rebound significantly. Liu Jinjin, chief China equity strategist of Goldman Sachs, said that under the expectation that the macro-control is intensified and the GDP growth rate is expected to pick up, we are optimistic about the performance of China stocks listed at home and abroad.

　　Bank of America’s strategy team believes that China’s domestic stocks are bound to rise due to the excess savings of China residents and the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies. Rui Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, believes that some valuable assets can be found in the China market at present. China is the second largest economy in the world, and investors can improve their diversification by investing in China.

　　The support of international institutions is not groundless. Recently, the overseas listed China ETF, China Stock Exchange and offshore RMB exchange rate all ushered in a wave of solid rise, which enhanced the confidence of foreign institutions to invest in China. For example, since November, the net value of iShares MSCI China ETF with a scale of over $7 billion has increased by over 30%; NASDAQ Jinlong China Index rose by more than 40% in November, the largest monthly increase since records began in 2003. The RMB exchange rate has also recently gone out of a strong upward trend. On the morning of December 5, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to 6.9813, the highest since mid-September.

　　"At present, some major economies continue to tighten monetary policy, the risk of economic recession has intensified, and market return expectations have weakened. In contrast, China has a stable economic development and clear investment logic. " Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Fund Research Department, analyzed that China’s economy is changing from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and there are a lot of investment opportunities in the process of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading in various industries. At the same time, China recovered quickly from the impact of the epidemic, and its economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter, and its position in the global industrial chain was rising day by day. In addition, China’s financial opening to the outside world has been continuously promoted, and the channels for foreign investors to participate in the domestic financial market have been continuously optimized, attracting the attention of more and more international investors.

　　The attractiveness of A shares has increased.

　　In addition to high-profile "singing more" China assets, foreign investors also took out "real money and silver" and continued to substantially increase their positions in A shares. As of December 6, the net purchase of northbound funds in 30 days exceeded 75 billion yuan, and the net purchase in the past 10 days reached 42.8 billion yuan.

　　Looking forward to 2023, the market expects that the pace of foreign investment "buying in buy buy" will continue to accelerate. "In 2022, nearly 70% of the financing amount in the A-share market comes from science and technology innovation board and the Growth Enterprise Market, which fully reflects the support of the capital market for technological innovation enterprises and emerging industries." Sun Jin, a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers China Comprehensive Business Services Department, said that in 2023, with the steady progress of the comprehensive registration system reform and the introduction of more measures to support scientific and technological innovation, the international attractiveness of the A-share market will be further enhanced.

　　As for the investment industry, the strategy team of Goldman Sachs believes that with the implementation of policies and measures to stabilize growth and the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the unemployment rate in China will drop, labor income will improve, consumer confidence will be restored, and consumer services, medical equipment and service sectors will rebound strongly, especially in tourism, catering, entertainment and aviation industries.

　　"Next, the geopolitical situation will enter a relatively calm stage, and the equity cost and equity risk premium will gradually decline, which will help investors reinvest in the China stock market. The consumer sector is the beneficiary of economic opening up. We further increase our exposure to this sector and continue to suggest increasing the allocation of offshore China stocks. " Wang Ying said.

　　In order to better attract foreign investment into the China market, Tian Lihui, president of the Institute of Financial Development of Nankai University, believes that it is necessary to persist in promoting the high-level institutional opening-up of the capital market and make overall plans for development and security. It is necessary to continue to expand the interconnection quota, continuously increase the variety of international products, gradually liberalize the restrictions on foreign-funded shares of financial institutions, and continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB. At the same time, the capital market should be opened to the outside world with gates, there should be room for trading rules, and market supervision should be real-time and prudent to prevent foreign hot money speculation and prevent the spread of foreign financial risks.

　　Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, also said recently that high-quality overseas capital market institutions are welcome to invest and exhibit in China. In the future, we will further improve the institutional framework for opening up the capital market, accelerate the implementation of various opening-up measures, and attract and gather more outstanding international institutions and talents to participate in China’s capital market. We will continue to improve relevant institutional arrangements, further facilitate cross-border investment by domestic and foreign investors, and better support cross-border financing development of enterprises.

　　Competing for exhibition industry in China

　　Since the beginning of this year, the policy dividends to further improve the convenience of foreign investment in China’s assets have been released intensively, giving foreign institutions a "reassurance" to enter the China market.

　　On April 26th, the CSRC issued the Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of Public Offering of Fund Industry, proposing to support high-quality overseas financial institutions with long-term investment will to set up fund management companies or expand the shareholding ratio. On November 18th, the People’s Bank of China and the foreign exchange bureau jointly issued the Regulations on Fund Management of Foreign Institutional Investors’ Investment in China Bond Market, which improved and clarified the requirements for fund management of foreign institutional investors’ investment in China Bond Market.

　　The convenience of foreign-funded institutions’ exhibition industry in China has been continuously improved, and the business scope and regulatory requirements have achieved national treatment. At present, more than 10 foreign-controlled or wholly-owned securities fund futures companies, such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Nomura and UBS, have been successively approved, and foreign banks such as Standard Chartered Bank have obtained fund custody qualifications in subsidiaries in China. Foreign private equity funds such as Qiaoshui and BlackRock have successively set up 38 wholly-owned subsidiaries.

　　On November 25th, Lubomai Fund announced that it had obtained the Public Offering of Fund business license issued by China Securities Regulatory Commission, becoming the second wholly foreign-owned fund management company newly established in China to conduct Public Offering of Fund business. Lubomai Fund said that the continuous opening of the financial market and the increasingly perfect business environment ruled by law have further enhanced Lubomai’s confidence and hope to further integrate into the development of China’s capital market in the future.

　　A number of foreign-funded institutions have started to exhibit in China. At the end of October, ICBC Wealth Management of Goldman Sachs, which was approved to open in June this year, launched the first wealth management product "Shengxin Junzhi Private Bank Enjoy Quantitative Equity Wealth Management Product Phase 1", with a maximum fundraising scale of 5 billion copies. Goldman Sachs ICBC Wealth Management previously said that after the deep correction in the previous period, the value of A shares is becoming prominent, and there is a large room for long-term holding.

　　As the first wholly foreign-owned public offering, BlackRock Fund has issued three equity funds and one "fixed income+"fund since it was approved in June 2021, and its products are diversified. Lu Wenjie, investment director of BlackRock Fund, said that A-shares are a market with great breadth and depth, wide investment scope, many related target companies and good liquidity. With the continuous strengthening of China’s opening to the outside world, it is believed that the integration of the global market and the China market will be a long-term trend.

　　"More outstanding international institutions entering the A-share market are investing in China’s economic growth prospects and the profitability of China enterprises ‘ A vote of confidence ’ Being able to form a healthy competitive interaction with domestic institutions is conducive to expanding the breadth and depth of China’s capital market, and is also conducive to the continuous improvement of service capabilities of related industries and helping China’s economic development. " Tian Lihui said.

Foreign media commented on 10 games that have been played for more than 100 hours recently, such as Bode Gate 3.

Some games have something special that allows players to play for more than hundreds of hours. Players will take the time to check every corner and complete every task. Although there are very few games with this experience, there have been some such games in the game market in the past few years. Foreign media counted 10 games worth playing for 100 hours for players today.

Game list:

1. Death Stranded: Guide and Cut Edition

2. The Eldon Method Ring

4. Cyberpunk 2077

5. the legend of zelda: Tears of the Kingdom

6.starry sky

7. Horizon: Desperate West

8. The Legacy of Hogwarts

9. Ghost of Tsushima Island: Guide and Cut Edition

10. The Lost Light 2